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Synapse
Calculates Green Energy Project Emissions for the EPA
What is the emissions benefit of replacing fossil-fuel power with
wind or other renewable resources? The question is more complicated
than it seems, as the resources displaced will change frequently depending
on system conditions. Synapse has just completed a groundbreaking
report for the EPA's Office of Research and Development in which we
identify and develop a method for calculating the emissions impact
of "green energy" projects. Synapse used EPA's Clean Air Markets database
(http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/emissions/index.html) to develop a
method based on observed generator behavior and emissions characteristics.
As part of the project, Synapse derived hourly, seasonal, and annual
displaced CO2, NOx and
SO2 emissions coefficients for use with various
types of renewable energy projects, for every region of the continental
United States. These data, along with the final report for the EPA,
are available for downloading and use from our website.
[
Download Report ] |
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Indirect
Emissions Results for Carbon Dioxide
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Demand
Resources Play a Key Role in New England Capacity Market
New England recently created a "Forward Capacity Market" (FCM) administered
by ISO-NE in order to procure new resources to ensure that the electric
power system would continue to be reliable in future years given the
region's gradually growing economy. The market was designed to allow
"demand resources" to bid along with traditional capacity resources
(power plants and power imports) into the capacity auction. These
demand resources include energy efficiency, demand response (load
reductions in "peak" hours) and small emergency generators. Together,
the demand resources winning in the first FCM amounted to 8% of the
TOTAL regional capacity for 2011 and, importantly, about two-thirds
of the NEW capacity. The 2,500 MW of demand resources that cleared
in this auction resulted in a surplus of resources, thereby keeping
the clearing price down (i.e., pinned at the "floor price" level of
$4.50/kW-month) and saving money for all of the region's electricity
consumers. Indications for the second Forward Capacity Auction, to
be held in December 2008, are that demand resources will play a similarly
important role at creating surplus capacity and keeping the clearing
price pinned to the "floor."
Duke Energy "Save-A-Watt"
Approach - Too Little for Too Much
Duke Energy has advocated a value-based approach to compensation for
demand response and energy efficiency. Under this approach, referred
to as “Save-a-Watt,” Duke proposed to keep 90% of the
estimated costs avoided as a result of its programs. Early in 2008,
Duke filed this proposal in South Carolina, North Carolina and Indiana.
Synapse witnesses reviewed the merits of that proposed approach in
the Carolinas on behalf of a coalition of environmental groups and
in Indiana, on behalf of the Citizens' Action Coalition. In their
testimony, Dave Nichols and Rick Hornby demonstrated that Duke Energy
was proposing to achieve very modest reductions in annual energy use
and asking for very high levels of compensation. Their testimony concludes
that the "Save-a-Watt" approach would not result in just
and reasonable rates for several reasons. Their analyses indicated
that Duke could achieve the same reductions in annual energy use at
the same or lower revenue requirements under a cost-of-service based
framework, that that high level of compensation the company would
receive was inconsistent with the low level of projected reductions
in annual energy use, and that save-a-watt provided the company a
strong financial incentive to pursue demand response but not to pursue
all cost-effective reductions in annual energy. By mid-2008, Duke
began to modify its proposed approach, moving toward an approach based
upon recovery of program costs, a shareholder earnings incentive and
lost margin.
[ Download
Testimony ]
Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and Residential Customers -
Concerns and Uncertainties
Synapse
has analyzed utility AMI proposals, and dynamic pricing enabled by
AMI, for consumer advocate clients in New Jersey, Maine, Maryland,
the District of Columbia and Washington. Our analyses have identified
and documented numerous concerns and uncertainties regarding the cost-effectiveness
of a full roll-out of AMI at this time. The concerns arising from
the utility filings we have reviewed include the absence of any evidence
that reductions in peak demand resulting from AMI-enabled dynamic
pricing will produce significant reductions in annual electric energy
use or the annual air emissions, such as carbon dioxide, associated
with annual electricity use. In addition, these filings do not demonstrate
that "AMI plus dynamic pricing" is the least-cost approach to achieving
the twin goals of reducing distribution system costs and reducing
customer electricity supply costs. In terms of uncertainties, the
filings in these states project reductions in peak demand from AMI-enabled
dynamic pricing based upon questionable assumptions regarding customer
participation, reductions per participant and persistence of reductions
per participant. Finally, the projected savings in wholesale generation
supply costs due to demand reductions from AMI-enabled dynamic pricing
are also based upon questionable assumptions regarding the impact
of those reductions on wholesale markets for generation capacity and
energy, and the mechanisms for crediting the resulting savings in
wholesale generation costs to ratepayers. These concerns and uncertainties
are discussed in a July 2008 whitepaper prepared for the New Jersey
Department of the Public Advocate, Division of Rate Counsel.
[ Download
Report ] |
| Study
of Costs and Benefits of Efficiency Yields Surprising Results!
In a recent study of the costs and benefits of energy efficiency programs
across the United States, Synapse found that above and beyond the
electric savings achieved by these programs, the non-electric benefits
include water and heating fuel savings, avoided CO2
costs, lower prices
due to the demand-reduction-induced price effect (DRIPE), economic
stimulus, job creation, risk reduction, and energy security.
Surprisingly, Synapse also found that the cost of saved energy (CSE)
per kWh tends to decrease as energy savings increase relative to annual
energy sales. Thus, as we increase the size of these programs, they
become even more cost effective, making them an even better investment.
[
Download
Report ]
[ Download
Graph ]
Examining High Electric Demand Days in Connecticut
In September of 2008, Synapse delivered a report to the Connecticut
Department of Environmental Protection (CT DEP) and the US EPA on
the likely emissions benefits of energy efficiency in the state. In
a memorandum of understanding, Connecticut is obliged to reduce stationary
source NOx emissions by 11.7 tons per day.
Like many other states, Connecticut has worked to reduce ozone by
requiring emissions reduction technology on power plants within the
state, but has reached a point where additional reductions can only
be achieved by either compelling older oil-burning plants to apply
expensive reductions, or funding energy efficiency and potentially
reducing the use of the worst emitters in the state. The CT DEP asked
Synapse to develop a model using only publically-available information
to predict the emissions benefits from both aggressive energy efficiency
as well as compelled emissions reductions at the worst emitters (known
as RMR, or “reliability must-run” units in CT). For this project,
Synapse developed a unique statistical model to analyze power plant
behavior from historical data to predict how power plants would react
to energy efficiency. The model draws on an extensive database published
by the EPA of hourly generation and emissions from every fossil unit
in the 48 contiguous states larger than 25 MW. Using statistics gathered
from how models throughout CT react to changes in CT demand, we were
able to develop a probabilistic model of power plant behavior. The
model was run for several efficiency scenarios, and found to effectively
reduce emissions by reducing the number of hours in which the dirtiest
plants operated. When emissions controls were applied to the highly
polluting sources and efficiency programs were ramped up, emissions
dropped significantly, meeting an aggressive target of over a 50%
reduction by 2019. The analysis and report are now being integrated
into the Connecticut State Implementation Plan, and although this
is a non-traditional method of attaining emissions reductions, the
involvement of the EPA from the initiation of this program is likely
to result in a successful implementation process.
[ Download
Report ]
Carbon Pricing Forecast Updated for 2008
Download the latest publication on taking carbon costs into account
in resource planning. Climate Change and Power: Carbon Dioxide
Emissions Costs and Electricity Resource Planning brings together
the most recent data on congressional initiatives, scientific studies,
and regional programs to mitigate greenhouse gases and assesses what
this all means for resource planning.
[ Download
Report ]
Companion
Report to ISO-NE Scenario Analysis: Finding the Energy Supply Mix
that Meets Regional Goals
In 2007, ISO New England issued the New
England Electricity Scenario Analysis Report to show how hypothetical
future energy supply scenarios impact electricity supply costs, reliability
and the environment. The report was developed as a planning tool to
help Northeast regional suppliers see what resources should be pursued
in order to meet the goals of supplying reliable electricity at a
reasonable cost while also meeting the environmental targets set by
the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). Of the eight scenarios
studied, none reduced emissions below the carbon cap set by RGGI.
In response, Synapse produced a Scenario Analysis Companion Report
that analyzed two additional cases: a 'Modified' scenario, which used
a combination of ISO-NE's Energy Efficiency and Demand Response sensitivity
case, the Retirement sensitivity case, the Double Energy Efficiency
sensitivity case, and a 'Preferred' scenario, which doubled the number
of retirements in the Retirement sensitivity case and enhanced the
amount of energy efficiency, demand response, and renewables in that
case to cover the additional retirements. At the request of the New
England Conference of Public Utility Commissioners (NECPUC), ISO-NE
modeled the two additional case studies. In late April 2008, ISO New
England provided the results of the two additional analyses. The Modified
Scenario results were consistent with the estimates that Synapse provided
in its Companion Report: RGGI carbon reduction goals are met, prices
are virtually unchanged, and infrastructure costs are reduced. The
Preferred scenario results exceeded the Synapse Companion report estimates:
carbon is reduced beyond targets set by RGGI; MWH prices decreased
by almost 30 percent; and infrastructure costs increased only slightly.
Synapse is in the process of evaluating the results from the two additional
case studies to further understand the implications of what changes
will be needed within the New England resource mix to achieve regional
goals.
Synapse Sets Sail
In
late September, Synapse staff, along with family and friends, gathered
for a sunset cruise down the Charles River. With its offerings of
a unique city view, buoyant music, and delicious appetizers, the evening
was miles of aquatic fun!
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Synapse
Welcomes Max Chang and Rachel Wilson
This past summer, Synapse added two new members to our dynamic staff!
Maximilian Chang joins us as an Associate and brings with him fourteen
years of analytical and environmental experience. His recent work experience
includes seven years as a Senior Scientist at Environmental Health and
Engineering in Needham, MA, where he oversaw Indoor Environmental Quality
investigations, EPA mandated PCB abatement projects and green building
consulting. Max earned a Masters degree in Environmental Science and
Engineering from the Harvard School of Public Health and a Bachelors
in Biology and Classics from Cornell University.
In his spare time,
Max enjoys cooking and scuba diving when not playing with his two young
toddlers.
He, his wife, and their youngsters reside in Needham, MA.
Max can be reached at (617) 661-3248 x227 or mchang@synapse-energy.com.
Select Recent Publications
Synapse has recently released a number of informative and interesting
reports, testimonies, and presentations. To view a complete listing
of all of our publications, please visit www.synapse-energy.com.
Wholesale
Natural Gas Prices in New England, Rick Hornby, Paul Peterson,
and David White, prepared for Massachusetts Office of the Attorney
General, August 29, 2008. [Download
Report]
"The
Sustainability and Costs of Increasing Efficiency Impacts: Evidence
from Experience to Date," presented by Kenji Takahashi and David
Nichols at the 2008 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings,
August 20, 2008. [Download
Presentation]
"Testimony on the Application of Alliant Energy for the Construction
of a New Coal-Fired Generating Unit," provided by David Schlissel
and Bob Fagan, prepared for Clean Wisconsin, and Wisconsin Citizens'
Utility Board, August 11, 2008. [Download
Testimonies]
"Testimony
on the Nevada Power Company's Proposed Amendment to its Integrated
Resource Plan," provided by Ezra Hausman, prepared for Western
Resource Advocates, August 12, 2008. [Download
Testimony]
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Rachel
Wilson is our newest Research Associate. Prior to
joining us, she worked for The Analysis Group, an economic, strategy,
and financial consulting firm based in Boston. Rachel supported expert
witnesses testifying in litigation matters relating to various energy
industry issues, particularly air pollution policy and economics.
She also worked on projects related to valuation of energy assets
and analysis of policies at the global, national, and state level.
She holds a Master of Environmental Management from Yale University
and a Bachelor of Arts in Environment, Economics, and Politics (EEP)
from Claremont McKenna College.
Her hobbies include reading, travel,
cooking, and most (but not all!) outdoor activities.
Rachel can be reached at (617) 661-3248 x244 or rwilson@synapse-energy.com.
To
learn more about Max, Rachel, and the rest of our consultants, view
the Staff
section of our website.
Nuclear
Power Plant Construction Costs July 30, 2008. [Download
Paper]
Coal-Fired
Power Plant Construction Costs July 30, 2008. [Download
Paper]
"Selected
Topics from Avoided Energy Supply Costs in New England 2007 Final
Report," presented by Bruce Biewald at a MA DPU Technical Session,
July 29, 2008. [Download
Presentation]
"Don't Get Burned: The Risks of Investing in New Coal-Fired Power
Plants," presented by David Schlissel at the NARUC Summer Meetings,
July 21, 2008. [Download
Presentation]
"Testimony
Regarding the Proposed Construction of a Nuclear Power Plant at Calvert
Cliffs Maryland," provided by David Schlissel, prepared for Nuclear
Information and Resource Service, July 16, 2008. [Download
Testimony]
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