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Client:
NA
Year:
2018

We've spent early 2018 absorbed in data recently released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). We've been analyzing numbers, creating snappy data visuals, and preparing the Synapse Electricity Snapshot 2018 (available here). In this webinar from March 16, 2018, we discuss the historical trends we found. We also look to the future by reviewing EIA's 2018 Annual Energy Outlook projections for energy use from the electric power, residential, commercial, and transportation sectors through 2050.

In typical Synapse style, we walk through the data using some of our favorite interesting graphs and charts. 

Featuring: Pat Knight, Tommy Vitolo PhD | Moderator: Bruce Biewald

Watch the webinar on our YouTube page.

Related Publication(s)
Trend Setting Webinar Slide Deck
Client:
Southern Alliance for Clean Energy
Year:
2018, 2017

Southern Alliance for Clean Energy engaged Synapse to provide technical support regarding the Tennessee Valley Authority’s electricity rates. Synapse reviewed trends in electricity prices for industrial and residential customers to assess whether TVA allocates costs across customer classes fairly. Synapse published a white paper on our findings, "Electricity Prices in the Tennessee Valley: Are customers being treated fairly?"

Related Publication(s)
Electricity Prices in the Tennessee Valley
Client:
Conservation Law Foundation, Acadia Center, New Hampshire Office of the Consumer Advocate, PowerOptions, RENEW Northeast, Vermont Energy Investment Corporation
Year:
2018

Synapse reviewed ISO New England’s Operational Fuel Security Analysis (OFSA) study published in January and compared the model results with alternative scenarios suggested by New England stakeholders. The report shows how assumptions about demand for energy (electric and gas) and variations in supply resources might impact grid operations and reliability during an extreme winter in 2024/25. The report finds that using reasonable assumptions about demand and supply resources show minimal grid operation concerns and no rolling blackouts. This finding is starkly different from the ISO’s conclusions in its January OFSA study.

Our report was prepared for Conservation Law Foundation, with support from the Barr Foundation, on behalf of a group of NEPOOL participants that requested that additional scenarios be modeled as part of ISO New England’s OFSA.

Related Publication(s)
Understanding ISO New England's Operational Fuel Security Analysis
Maintaining Reliability Under Extreme Conditions: Understanding ISO New England's Operational Fuel Security Analysis
Client:
Southern Environmental Law Center
Year:
2018

Synapse provided analysis and expert testimony on behalf of the South Carolina Coastal Conservation League and the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy for South Carolina Electric & Gas’ (SCE&G) 2018 annual update of solar PV avoided costs under PURPA. Witness Devi Glick submitted testimony (Docket no. 2018-2-E) regarding the appropriate calculation of benefit categories associated with the value of solar calculation for PURPA QF rates and for Act 236 compliance.

Related Publication(s)
Direct Testimony of Devi Glick on SCE&G Fuel Costs
Surrebuttal Testimony of Devi Glick on SCEG Fuel Costs
Client:
Energy Foundation
Year:
2018, 2017

Report on the impacts of utility investment in developing competitive markets, particularly with respect to electric vehicle infrastructure.

Related Publication(s)
Utility Investments for Market Transformation
Client:
Year:
2017

Wild fires rage in California. Communities continue rebuilding after devastating storms. The next financial crisis could lurk around the next corner. Worst-case scenarios are happening, but the current public policy framework leaves communities defenseless against them.

On December 21, 2017, we celebrated the release of Worst-Case Economics: Extreme Events in Climate and Finance, the latest book by Frank Ackerman (Synapse Principal Economist). Dr. Ackerman joined Bruce Biewald for our Third Thursday webinar series to discuss his new book, which Juliet Schor described as "highly accessible but profound" and Samuel Bowles called "an important book and a delight to read." 

Here's a brief description from Dr. Ackerman:

Worst-Case Economics Cover

The stocmarket and the climate are well-behaved most of the time – but those are not the times we worry about. Worst-case scenarios are all too real and all too common. The financial crisis of 2008 was not the first or the last to destroy jobs, homeownership and savings for millions of people. Ever-weirder weather includes megastorms clobbering communities from New York to Bangladesh, rising sea levels, and heat waves killing thousands across Europe.

Climate and financial crises are serious events, requiring vigorous responses. Yet public policy is trapped in an obsolete framework with a simplistic focus on average or likely outcomes rather than on dangerous extremes. What would it take to create better analyses of extreme events in climate and finance, and an appropriate policy framework for worst-case risks? Worst-Case Economics offers accessible and surprising answers to these crucial questions.

 

Worst-Case Economics is available in hard-copy and e-book from Amazon or in hard-copy from Barnes & Noble and UK distributors Wordery and Book Depository.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Related Publication(s)
Worst-Case Economics Webinar Slides
Client:
AESC Study Group
Year:
2018, 2017

Avoided Energy Supply Costs in New England 2018 study materials:

For more information about the AESC study, please visit our project page.

Related Publication(s)
Appendix B - AESC 2018
Appendix C - AESC 2018
Appendix D - AESC 2018
Appendix J - AESC 2018
AESC 2018 Presentation of Results
Client:
District of Columbia Department of Energy and Environment
Year:
2017

Pepco Holdings Inc. has proposed to build a new substation  in the Mt. Vernon area in Washington, DC at a cost of over $150 million. Synapse analyzed the area to determine whether the proposed substation is required to maintain reliability. In the resulting report, Synapse demonstrates how non-wires alternatives such as energy efficiency, distributed generation, demand response, or storage could maintain reliability at a much lower cost.

Related Publication(s)
Alternatives to Building a New Mt Vernon Substation in Washington DC
Client:
E4TheFuture
Year:
2017

Synapse Energy Economics joined with Sustainable Energy Advantage (SEA), as well as members from NECEC, Mass Energy Consumers Alliance, E4TheFuture, and other organizations to analyze the current state of regional renewable portfolio standards in light of many of new policy actions that have been put into place over the last several years. These policy actions include new legislation requiring long-term contracting for renewables and other resources in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, revised incentives for distributed generation resources, changes to RPS polices in other states in New England, proposed Massachusetts-specific CO2 caps, and newly-revised forecasts for electricity sales that take the full impact of new energy efficiency measures into account. 

Related Publication(s)
An Analysis of the Massachusetts Renewable Portfolio Standard
Client:
New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel
Year:
2017

Since 2005, Synapse has provided analysis of New Jersey's Basic Generation Service (BGS) procurement options for the New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel. The BGS procurement process includes annual auctions held by the State of New Jersey for the procurement of fixed-price, basic electric generation service (BGS-FP). BGS-FP service is the name of the rate plan for those residential and small commercial customers who choose not to use a competitive supplier for their electricity needs. Synapse's BGS procurement analysis takes into consideration the BGS auction process and other factors relevant to procurement options for NJ BGS customers. Synapse's analyses include assessment of procurement options in other states; futures markets for electricity, natural gas, and coal; recent auction/RFP results for BGS-FP-equivalent services from other states; PJM technical issues affecting BGS procurement considerations; and other relevant issues. Based on its analysis of the 2017 proposal, Synapse recommended that the BGS process should not move away from procuring a fixed price product that was meant to protect ratepayers form market volatility to a product that slowly increases protection for bidders at ratepayers’ expense. 

Client:
Consumers for Sensible Energy
Year:
2017

On behalf of Consumers for Sensible Energy and a number of other non-governmental organizations, Synapse analyzed the need for, and the cost of, the Access Northeast (ANE) natural gas pipeline. As proposed, the ANE pipeline relies on a new funding mechanism whereby electric ratepayers would pay for new gas pipelines. This unprecedented funding proposal has spurred controversy and litigation: the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court and the New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission both rejected this approach, declaring that it violates state laws enacted to restructure the electric utility sector and to protect consumers from undue financial risk. Pipeline proponents claim that the ANE pipeline is needed to relieve capacity constraints on New England’s natural gas pipeline system and that the cost of the pipeline is justified because it will ultimately save money for New England electric ratepayers.

Synapse’s analysis showed otherwise. Any savings created by the ANE pipeline are likely to be outweighed by its costs, which are more than twice what proponents have generally reported. The analysis also indicated that the need for natural gas in New England will decrease dramatically within a few years of ANE’s construction. This would alleviate the capacity constraints cited to justify the pipeline. Synapse modeled energy use, prices, and emissions in a base scenario in which there is no new pipeline compared to a scenario in which the ANE pipeline is constructed. 

Related Publication(s)
Natural Gas in Connecticut: Factsheet
New England's Shrinking Need for Natural Gas
Client:
Washington Office of the Attorney General
Year:
2018, 2017

Synapse’s Rachel Wilson provided analysis and testimony on an Avista Corporation rate case before the Washington Utilities & Transportation Commission. Ms. Wilson evaluated Avista’s production cost modeling, which used the AuroraXMP model, to determine if its requested increase in power costs was reasonable. She found that Avista’s modeling methodology led to a sustained overestimate of annual power supply costs, as evidenced by the compounding of credit deferral balances in its Energy Recovery Mechanism. Ms. Wilson recommended that Avista recalibrate its modeling to allow the Energy Recovery Mechanism to function as intended—to capture the variability between modeled and actual power supply costs. She further recommended that Avista more fully explore the possibility of joining the Western Energy Imbalance Market, which is a real-time wholesale energy market in which participants can buy and sell energy when needed.

Related Publication(s)
Response Testimony of Rachel Wilson in Avista Rate Case
Client:
Southwest Energy Efficiency Project
Year:
2018, 2017

The Southwest Energy Efficiency Project (SWEEP) conducted a study on benefits of residential heat pumps for space heating and water heating in five major cities in the Southwest. Kenji Takahashi of Synapse Energy Economics played a key advisory role assisting SWEEP with conducting the first major analysis of heat pumps against natural gas heating in the region. More specifically, he reviewed, advised, and offered recommendations on key assumptions and methodologies for evaluating energy, economic, and emissions impacts of heat pumps.

You can read the report on SWEEP's website.

Client:
Régionaux de l’Environment du Québec
Year:
2017

Synapse prepared a summary of best practices in utility demand response (DR) programs and then compared those practices with HydroQuebec Distribution's planned DR resource and programs in their 2017-2026 Supply Plan, resulting in a set of recommendations for programmatic activities and revised planning processes. Synapse produced an expert report as well as a presentation used during live testimony.

Related Publication(s)
Best Practices in Utility Demand Response Programs
Best Practices in Utility Demand Response Programs (Testimony Slide Deck)
Client:
Sierra Club
Year:
2017

In February 2017, the utilities with ownership of Navajo Generating Station in Arizona voted to cease operations of the coal-fired power plant. Two months later, Peabody Energy, operator of the mine that supplies fuel to Navajo, presented an analysis before the Arizona Corporation Commission demonstrating that Navajo is economically viable. On behalf of Sierra Club, Synapse examined this study, which was commissioned by Peabody and conducted by Navigant. Synapse found that Navigant relied on overstated market energy prices and understated Navajo's fuel prices, resulting in nearly $2 billion in errors.

 

Related Publication(s)
Chasing the Elusive Benefits of Navajo Generating Station
Client:
Food & Water Watch
Year:
2018, 2017, 2016

The Los Angeles City Council has mandated that the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), the largest municipally-run utility in the United States, analyze powering 100 percent of demand with renewable energy. To date, LADWP's efforts have been insufficient, as the utility has only published an analysis of a slight increase over current renewable energy targets and is not planning to finalize their 100 percent renewable study until 2020 at the earliest. 

Food & Water Watch engaged Synapse to analyze a potential pathway to 100 percent clean energy in Los Angeles by 2030. In our study, we found that it is possible for LADWP to exclusively use renewable resources to power its system in every hour of the year. What's more, we found that under one of the clean energy pathways analyzed, the transition to 100 percent renewable energy in every hour of the year can occur at no net cost to the system. The resulting report, Clean Energy for Los Angeles, provides a roadmap for how to achieve 100 percent renewables by integrating and harnessing renewable energy more efficiently and investing in additional efficiency, storage, and demand response.

Although the report only focuses on a single city, the results are important and applicable to many other parts of the country. Los Angeles's 4 million residents make the city larger than 22 entire states, while the annual energy served by LADWP is greater than sales in 13 individual states, indicating that if this transition is possible in Los Angeles, it is feasible in other parts of the country as well. 

Related Publication(s)
Clean Energy for Los Angeles
Client:
Riverkeeper, Natural Resources Defense Council
Year:
2017

Clean Energy for New York: Replacement Energy and Capacity Resources for the Indian Point Energy Center Under New York Clean Energy Standard (CES): Report prepared by Synapse Energy Economics for Riverkeeper and Natural Resources Defense Council.

Related Publication(s)
Clean Energy for New York
Client:
Connecticut Fund for the Environment
Year:
2017

Synapse analyzed the impacts of increasing the Connecticut Renewable Portfolio Standard.

Related Publication(s)
Increasing the Connecticut Renewable Portfolio Standard
Client:
Maryland Office of the People's Counsel
Year:
2017, 2016

Synapse reviewed assumptions in Delmarva Power and Light’s benefit-to-cost analysis of its Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) Initiative. Max Chang submitted testimony on behalf of Maryland OPC demonstrating that, due to unreasonable assumptions, DPL overestimated the benefit to cost ratio of the AMI program for the 2015-2024 period. Mr. Chang recommended that the Commission disallow $34 million in order to protect ratepayers.

Related Publication(s)
Direct Testimony of Max Chang Regarding DPL AMI
Client:
Office of the People's Counsel for the District of Columbia
Year:
2017, 2016

On behalf of the Office of the People's Counsel for the District of Columbia (OPC), Synapse evaluated several aspects of distributed generation in Washington, DC. This project consisted of three research topics. First, Synapse researched and offered recommendations regarding policies that can sustainably support the development of distributed generation in the District, while avoiding adverse consequences. Second, Synapse assessed the technical and economic potential for distributed generation in the District, particularly solar photovoltaics (PV). Finally, Synapse conducted a benefit-cost analysis of solar in the District. 

Related Publication(s)
Distributed Solar in the District of Columbia
OPC Reply Comments Regarding Pepco Comments on Value of Solar Study
Client:
Earthjustice
Year:
2017

Synapse was retained by Earthjustice to draft a whitepaper discussing grid resiliency issues in the context of the United States Department of Energy (DOE)’s “grid resiliency pricing rule” proposal. DOE’s proposal directed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to design rules that would guarantee full recovery of costs for all generating units operating in competitive wholesale markets with 90 days of fuel supply on-site (conventionally understood to refer to nuclear and coal-fired units). Synapse’s whitepaper discusses several key problems associated with this proposal: first, the authorities in charge of the nation’s wholesale energy markets (including FERC itself as well as ISO/RTOs and state agencies) have devoted substantial efforts to increasing the reliability and resiliency of the grid system and have reasonable, market-based approaches for accomplishing this goal. Second, fuel supply disruptions have not historically been a significant cause of service interruptions. Third, coal units in particular are vulnerable to both fuel supply disruptions and other failures during extreme weather and temperature events, and have demonstrated decreasing reliability over time. Synapse’s whitepaper was filed under FERC docket RM18-1-000 in support of comments submitted by Earthjustice, Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), Sierra Club, Sustainable FERC Project, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), the Center for Biological Diversity, the Environmental Law and Policy Center, the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC), Conservation Law Foundation (CLF), Environmental Working Group, and Fresh Energy.

 

Related Publication(s)
Comments on the U.S. DOE Proposed Grid Resiliency Pricing Rule
Client:
Fredericks Peebles & Morgan LLP
Year:
2017, 2016

The Dakota Access pipeline, proposed in 2014, was designed to carry crude oil from the Bakken oil field in western North Dakota, through South Dakota and Iowa, to a pipeline hub in southern Illinois. The final stages of construction, not yet completed, have become the subject of a wide-ranging controversy involving multiple environmental, legal, cultural, and economic issues.

In February 2017 Synapse produced a report based on research performed for Fredericks Peebles & Morgan LLP, attorneys for the Cheyenne River Sioux, addressing one dimension of the controversy: the economic impacts of completing the Dakota Access pipeline.

 

Related Publication(s)
Economic Impacts of Completing the Dakota Access Pipeline
Client:
Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board
Year:
2017, 2016

As a continuation of previous work, Synapse provided NS UARB with consulting services on energy efficiency issues. Specifically, Synapse provided technical support and analysis with respect to rate and bill impacts, low-income program participation and performance, methodology to determine program incentives, and benefits of location-specific efficiency targeting.

Related Publication(s)
Comments on CLEAResult EfficiencyOne Incentive Setting Methodology Report
Reply Comments on CLEAResult EfficiencyOne Incentive Setting Methodology
Comments on Revised CLEAResult EfficiencyOne Incentive Setting Methodology
Comments on EfficiencyOne 2016 Rate and Bill Impact Analysis
Comments on Efficiency Nova Scotia 2017 DSM Progress Report
Client:
Maryland Office of the People's Counsel
Year:
2017

The Maryland Office of People’s Counsel retained Synapse to review the independent assessment of two offshore wind applications before the Maryland Public Service Commission in Case 9431. The two proposals under consideration are from US Wind for a 248 MW wind farm and Deepwater Wind for a 120 MW wind farm. Maryland's Offshore Renewable Energy Credit legislation establishes administrative thresholds for each offshore wind application and evaluation criteria for the Commission to use in its review. Synapse reviewed the findings, inputs, and calculations of the independent assessment and the two applications to provide recommendations regarding the renewable energy credit payments, ratepayer impacts, economic impacts, and net benefits attributed to each proposed project. Max Chang submitted testimony on behalf of MD OPC in March 2017.

Related Publication(s)
Direct Testimony of Max Chang Regarding Offshore Wind Proposals in Maryland
Client:
Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources
Year:
2018, 2017, 2016

Massachusetts’ Green Communities program helps the state’s 351 cities and towns find and successfully implement clean energy solutions. To receive Green Community designation, communities must develop and implement a plan to reduce energy use by 20 percent within five years and meet additional criteria including allowing for permitting and siting of renewable energy, purchasing fuel-efficient and alternative fuel vehicles, and adopting more stringent building codes. The Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources engaged Synapse to review Green Community Annual Reports, verify whether municipalities have reached their 20 percent energy reduction goal, and develop a Progress Report for the program highlighting achievements to date. Synapse will also identify strategies that are effective across towns, provide support to towns to meet their energy reduction goal, and make recommendations to continue to advance and improve the program. Synapse developed the Green Communities Program 2016 Progress Report, available here, and is currently developing the 2017 report.

Client:
Not Another Power Plant, Sierra Club
Year:
2017, 2016

On behalf of Not Another Power Plant and Sierra Club, Synapse’s Bob Fagan submitted Direct and Surrebuttal expert testimony to the Connecticut Siting Council regarding the Killingly Energy Center, a 550 MW combined cycle power plant proposed for Killingly, Connecticut. He testified at two separate Siting Council hearings concerning the proposed plant. Mr. Fagan’s testimony clearly demonstrated that there are no short-term or longer-term reliability needs for the proposed plant. Further, increased renewable resources and energy efficiency required to meet increasing greenhouse gas emission limits will provide more than sufficient energy and capacity to meet reliability needs.

Related Publication(s)
Direct Testimony of Bob Fagan Regarding Proposed Killingly Energy Center
Surrebuttal Testimony of Bob Fagan Regarding Proposed Killingly Energy Center
Client:
Maine Office of the Public Advocate
Year:
2018, 2017

Synapse is conducting an energy burden study of low-income Maine households. Drawing on the results of an energy baseline survey by GDS Associates, this study will analyze how energy burdens differ between low-income and non-low-income households, and across factors that can impact participation in and efficacy of energy efficiency programs, such as age, race, language, education level, homeownership, need for ancillary repairs, and current energy usage. Synapse will then map the energy burden of low-income Maine households, an effort that can inform efficiency program design, improve targeting efforts, and demonstrate how the collection and application of low-income energy efficiency data can be improved. 

Client:
Sierra Club
Year:
2017

Madison G&E is seeking to build 66 MW of wind in Iowa in Docket 3270-CE-127. Synapse provided expert testimony on behalf of Sierra Club regarding the Company's assumptions and modeling. Key questions included whether or not larger turbines or simply a larger project would have been more economic.

Related Publication(s)
Direct Testimony of Ariel Horowitz Regarding Saratoga Wind Farm
Client:
Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board
Year:
2017

Synapse reviewed the Maritime Link Interim Cost Assessment. Specifically, Synapse analyzed the value of the Maritime Link asset to ratepayers given costs associated with a delay in delivery of energy via the Maritime Link. Further, Synapse assessed if the Maritime Link Project, approved by NS UARB in 2013, would be “used and useful.” Bob Fagan and Tyler Comings submitted joint direct testimony on these issues to the NS UARB.

Related Publication(s)
Joint Direct Testimony of Bob Fagan and Tyler Comings on Maritime Link Project
Client:
Conservation Law Foundation
Year:
2017

Synapse provided technical assistance and expert testimony on behalf of Conservation Law Foundation regarding the grid modernization plans of Eversource, National Grid, and Unitil in Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities dockets 15-120, 15-121, and 15-122. Synapse reviewed the methodologies and assumptions used by the companies in their plans. Synapse also assessed the extent to which the proposed plans meet the Department’s objectives for grid modernization, with particular focus on the plans’ incorporation of distributed energy resources as a key contributor to grid modernization.

Related Publication(s)
Direct Testimony of Woolf and Horowitz on Grid Modernization Plans

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